Real Estate Showdown Week 15 Denver Vs San Diego

Real Estate Showdown Week 15 Denver Vs San Diego

I think Peyton Manning said it best in response to critics of his play in the cold. I’m not going to repeat it here, but it involved sun not shining on places. Peyton and the Denver Broncos  silenced a lot of the doubters who said they can’t play in the cold last week against the Titans. I know, I was one of them. Does that mean Peyton can handle any conditions from now on? Well his 1-5 record in sub 20 degree weather argues otherwise, but at least now we know they CAN win.

Next up on their last call tour before the playoffs is the San Diego Chargers.  Now this is an interesting matchup for several reasons:

We got ‘em on the ropes!

San Diego, at 6-7 are a statistical long shot to make the playoffs, but don’t tell them that. Many teams, faced in this situation, play with an added sense of urgency and desperation. This game means quite a bit to the Broncos  as well. They are just barely ahead of the Patriots for top seed with the Bengals, Chiefs and Colts close behind. This game will come down to who has more urgency.

Cry me a Rivers

Anyone who knows me knows how much I severely dislike Phillip Rivers. Not just because he is the quarterback for the rival Chargers but I mean like a ‘Babe Ruth in Boston, Eli Manning in San Diego, Lane Kiffen in literally anywhere he has ever coached’ kind of deep dislike. So anytime I get to see Phillip Rivers cry on national television is a real treat for me. Like presents on Christmas morning. So not only to warm my heart, but one of the keys to this game is disrupting Phillip Rivers. The Chargers have been playing at a relatively high level lately. The offense lives and dies with Rivers so take him out of rhythm, disguise coverages and just knocking him on his but a dozen times or so ought to stifle the offense.

Where’s the D?

I know this is hardly ‘expert analysis’ by stating the obvious but come on! The defense has been absent most of the season. Like every Broncos  fan, I have the play where the cornerbacks got burned by the Ravens in the playoffs last season seared into my brain and instead of vowing to never let that happen again, it seems like they are letting it happen every week. They need to play a lot better than their 29th ranking would indicate! This week, they have a quarterback who can sense weakness and will pick them apart if they don’t get their act together. At that point it becomes a shootout. I don’t think having Peyton consistently throw 59 passes like he did last week is a long term winning formula.

Just like the Broncos  game this week, Denver has San Diego to worry about in other ways. In this week’s edition of the Real Estate Showdown, we will matchup the real estate markets of Denver and San Diego. As we have each week, we will focus on 7 key factors to make our determination on which market is truly the winner (stats gathered via National Association of Realtors, Denver Metro Association of Realtors and San Diego Association of Realtors).

Denver, Colorado 
Average Sales Price: $332,184
Percent Change in Average Sales Price (Previous Month): 0.02% Increase 
Percent Change in Average Sales Price (Previous Year): 10.04% Increase 
Percent of Home Ownership: 52% 
Home Vacancy Rate: 4.34% 
Income Per Capita: $32,051 
Unemployment Rate:  7.0%  

San Diego, California 

Average Sales Price: $354,824
Percent Change in Average Sales Price (Previous Month): 0.57% Decrease 
Percent Change in Average Sales Price (Previous Year): 10.34% Increase 
Percent of Home Ownership: 49% 
Home Vacancy Rate: Not Reported 
Income Per Capita: $33,135 
Unemployment Rate:  7.4%

This week, instead of looking at median home price, we decided to look at average sales price, as this gives a better indication of what’s actually circulating in and out of the market. By making this change, we see a much more accurate picture of current market conditions and its almost like looking in the mirror. There’s only a 6% difference in average sales price (based on October’s data) and a little more movement on the month for San Diego and three tenths of a difference for the year as a whole. Very, very similar numbers.  Here’s what’s most interesting to me. I know, based on past research, the median home price in San Diego is much higher than $354,824 and the median home price in Denver is significantly lower than $332,184. So this is telling me that the above average priced and luxury market is moving faster than the below average priced homes. This appears to be the opposite in San Diego.

So which is better? Hard to say for sure, but I will argue this: a strong luxury market can help boost an entire market much more than a strong below-average priced market. Check out our next Real Estate Showdown when we compare Denver  to Houston. In the meantime, give me a call if you are thinking of buying or selling a home and would like help squashing the competition!

Matthew Koller is part of the Carr Peck & Associates at Keller Williams. Carr Peck & Associates were 6th in Denver Metro home sales out of 5,000 agents and has been recognized by the Wall Street Journal and Real Trends as one of the top selling teams in the country. For more information feel free to  
contact him   or call 303-704-3286. 

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Dated: December 11th 2013
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